Unpunctual in diversity: The effect of stand species richness on spring phenology of deciduous tree stands varies among species and years.

Climatic drivers alone do not adequately explain the regional variation in budburst timing in deciduous forests across Europe. Stand-level factors, such as tree species richness, might affect budburst timing by creating different microclimates under the same site macroclimate. We assessed different phases of the spring phenology (start, midpoint, end, and overall duration of the budburst period) of four important European tree species (Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Quercus robur and Tilia cordata) in monocultures and four-species mixture stands of a common garden tree biodiversity experiment in Belgium (FORBIO) in 2021 and 2022. Microclimatic differences between the stands in terms of bud chilling, temperature forcing, and soil temperature were considerable, with four-species mixtures being generally colder than monocultures in spring, but not in winter. In the colder spring of 2021, at the stand level, the end of the budburst period was advanced, and its overall duration shortened, in the four-species mixtures. At species level, this response was significant for F. sylvatica. In the warmer spring of 2022, advances in spring phenology in four-species stands were observed again in F. sylvatica and, less markedly, in B. pendula but without a general response at the stand level. Q. robur showed specific patterns with delayed budburst start in 2021 in the four-species mixtures and very short budburst duration for all stands in 2022. Phenological differences between monocultures and four-species mixtures were linked to microclimatic differences in light availability rather than in temperature as even comparatively colder microclimates showed an advanced phenology. Compared to weather conditions, tree species richness had a lower impact on budburst timing, but this impact can be of importance for key species like F. sylvatica and colder springs. These results indicate that forest biodiversity can affect budburst phenology, with wider implications, especially for forest- and land surface models.

Divergence in evolutionary potential of life history traits among wild populations is predicted by differences in climatic conditions.

Short-term adaptive evolution represents one of the primary mechanisms allowing species to persist in the face of global change. Predicting the adaptive response at the species level requires reliable estimates of the evolutionary potential of traits involved in adaptive responses, as well as understanding how evolutionary potential varies across a species' range. Theory suggests that spatial variation in the fitness landscape due to environmental variation will directly impact the evolutionary potential of traits. However, empirical evidence on the link between environmental variation and evolutionary potential across a species range in the wild is lacking. In this study, we estimate multivariate evolutionary potential (via the genetic variance-covariance matrix, or G-matrix) for six morphological and life history traits in 10 wild populations of great tits (Parus major) distributed across Europe. The G-matrix significantly varies in size, shape, and orientation across populations for both types of traits. For life history traits, the differences in G-matrix are larger when populations are more distant in their climatic niche. This suggests that local climates contribute to shaping the evolutionary potential of phenotypic traits that are strongly related to fitness. However, we found no difference in the overall evolutionary potential (i.e., G-matrix size) between populations closer to the core or the edge of the distribution area. This large-scale comparison of G-matrices across wild populations emphasizes that integrating variation in multivariate evolutionary potential is important to understand and predict species' adaptive responses to new selective pressures.

Recreational hazard: Vegetation and host habitat use correlate with changes in tick-borne disease hazard at infrastructure within forest stands.

Studies on density and pathogen prevalence of Ixodes ricinus indicate that vegetation and local host community drive much of their variation between green spaces. Contrarily, micro-geographic variation is understudied, although its understanding could reduce disease risk. We studied the density of infectious nymphal Ixodes sp. ("DIN", proxy for disease hazard), density of questing nymphs ("DON") and nymphal infection prevalence ("NIP") near recreational forest infrastructure. Drag sampling within forest stands and at adjacent benches and trails was combined with vegetation surveys, camera trapping hosts and pathogen screening of ticks. We analysed Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. and its genospecies, with complementary analyses on Rickettsia sp., Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Neoehrlichia mikurensis and Borrelia miyamotoi. DIN was highest in forest interior and at trails enclosed by forest. Lower disease hazard was observed at benches and trails at forest edges. This infrastructure effect can be attributed to variation in vegetation characteristics and the habitat use of tick hosts, specifically roe deer, rodents and songbirds. DON is the main driver of DIN at micro-geographic scale and negatively affected by infrastructure and forest edges. A positive association with vegetation cover in understorey and canopy was observed, as were positive trends for local rodent and songbird abundance. NIP of different pathogens was affected by different drivers. Lower B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence in the interior of forest stands, driven by its most prevalent genospecies B. afzelii, points towards higher density of uninfected hosts there. B. afzelii was positively associated with understorey containing tall species and with high canopy cover, whereas local bird community composition predicts B. garinii prevalence. A positive effect of songbird abundance and a negative effect of pigeons were observed. Our findings support amplification and inhibition mechanisms within forest stands and highlight that the effect of established drivers of DIN may differ based on the considered spatial scale.

Network structure of avian mixed-species flocks decays with elevation and latitude across the Andes.

Birds in mixed-species flocks benefit from greater foraging efficiency and reduced predation, but also face costs related to competition and activity matching. Because this cost-benefit trade-off is context-dependent (e.g. abiotic conditions and habitat quality), the structure of flocks is expected to vary along elevational, latitudinal and disturbance gradients. Specifically, we predicted that the connectivity and cohesion of flocking networks would (i) decline towards tropical latitudes and lower elevations, where competition and activity matching costs are higher, and (ii) increase with lower forest cover and greater human disturbance. We analysed the structure of 84 flock networks across the Andes and assessed the effect of elevation, latitude, forest cover and human disturbance on network characteristics. We found that Andean flocks are overall open-membership systems (unstructured), though the extent of network structure varied across gradients. Elevation was the main predictor of structure, with more connected and less modular flocks upslope. As expected, flocks in areas with higher forest cover were less cohesive, with better defined flock subtypes. Flocks also varied across latitude and disturbance gradients as predicted, but effect sizes were small. Our findings indicate that the unstructured nature of Andean flocks might arise as a strategy to cope with harsh environmental conditions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Mixed-species groups and aggregations: shaping ecological and behavioural patterns and processes'.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Male mating preference in an ixodid tick.

BACKGROUND: Mate choice is a fundamental element of sexual selection and has the potential to shape the evolution of traits. Mate choice based on body size has been shown to be a common trait in several arthropod species. In hard ticks, a taxon of medical and veterinary importance, engorgement weight is positively correlated with reproductive output but it is unknown whether adult males show mate choice. Here, we experimentally investigated whether males (i) use chemical cues to choose their mating partner, (ii) consistently choose for the same female individual and (iii) prefer females with highest weight after feeding. METHODS: We used two experimental setups which allowed chemical communication between ticks: (i) a horizontal tube preventing physical contact with the female and (ii) an arena where tactile cues were allowed. In total, we tested 62 different triads in 124 tests (66 tests in the horizontal tube and 58 in the arena) composed of one male that could choose between two engorged females. Specifically, we tested 42 triads in the tube and 46 in the arena; 24 triads were repeatedly tested in the tube while 38 triads were tested in both setups. RESULTS: We found no preference for individual or heavier females in either setup. However, in the horizontal tube setup, males significantly preferred females that were not visited by them in the previous test. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a lack of male mate choice despite heavier females having higher fecundity. However, future studies should take into account that males may recognize the potential mating partners they previously met.

Survival in the understorey: Testing direct and indirect effects of microclimatological changes on Ixodes ricinus.

The distribution of ticks in the Ixodes ricinus species complex is partly driven by climate, with temperature and relative humidity affecting survival. These variables are driven by macroclimate, but vary locally due to microclimate buffering. This buffering has been suggested to be one of the driving forces behind variation in tick survival and density in time and space. In order to understand the role of the herb layer with respect to this variation, we deployed I. ricinus within an existing experimental setup studying the response of forest understorey to micrometeorological changes. This allowed for the analysis of both direct effects of warming on tick survival in controlled field conditions, as well as indirect effects through changes in herb layer biomass. Herb layer biomass estimates were observed to be higher in plots that had been experimentally warmed, with a trend towards higher survival in these warmed plots. This marginal increase in survival rate may be due to increased microclimate buffering. Comparing our results to literature implies that canopy and shrub layer vegetation have a larger effect on climate buffering, and therefore also on tick survival. Since the herb layer biomass is expected to increase due to global warming and increased frequency of disturbance-induced canopy gaps, survival in forested habitats may increase in the future. This would increase the difference in survival compared to that in open habitats.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation.

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Predictors of individual performance and evolutionary potential of life-history traits in a hematophagous ectoparasite.

Little is known about the intraspecific variation of parasite life-history traits and how this variation may affect parasite fitness and evolution. We investigated how life-history traits predict success of individual tree-hole ticks Ixodes arboricola and estimated their evolutionary potential, as well as genetic correlations within stages and phenotypic correlations within and across stages. Ticks were followed individually over two generations while allowed to feed on great tits Parus major. After accounting for host and tick maternal effects, we found that short feeding times and high engorgement weights strongly increased molting success. Molting time was also positively correlated with feeding success in adults. In larvae and nymphs, we found negative phenotypic correlations between engorgement weight and both feeding and molting time, the latter supported by a negative genetic correlation. We found sex-related differences in feeding time (longer in male nymphs) and molting time (longer in male larvae but shorter in male nymphs). Also, time since the last feeding event (set experimentally) reduced larval and nymphal fitness, whereas it increased adult female fitness. Furthermore, we found significant heritability and evolvability, that is, the potential to respond to selection, for engorgement weight and molting time across all stages but no significant heritability for feeding time. Our findings suggest that variation in tick fitness is shaped by consistent individual differences in tick quality, for which engorgement weight is a good proxy, rather than by life-history trade-offs.

Linking Behavior, Co-infection Patterns, and Viral Infection Risk With the Whole Gastrointestinal Helminth Community Structure in Mastomys natalensis.

Infection probability, load, and community structure of helminths varies strongly between and within animal populations. This can be ascribed to environmental stochasticity or due to individual characteristics of the host such as their age or sex. Other, but understudied, factors are the hosts' behavior and co-infection patterns. In this study, we used the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to investigate how the hosts' sex, age, exploration behavior, and viral infection history affects their infection risk, parasitic load, and community structure of gastrointestinal helminths. We hypothesized that the hosts' exploration behavior would play a key role in the risk for infection by different gastrointestinal helminths, whereby highly explorative individuals would have a higher infection risk leading to a wider diversity of helminths and a larger load compared to less explorative individuals. Fieldwork was performed in Morogoro, Tanzania, where we trapped a total of 214 individual mice. Their exploratory behavior was characterized using a hole-board test after which we collected the helminths inside their gastrointestinal tract. During our study, we found helminths belonging to eight different genera: Hymenolepis sp., Protospirura muricola, Syphacia sp., Trichuris mastomysi, Gongylonema sp., Pterygodermatites sp., Raillietina sp., and Inermicapsifer sp. and one family: Trichostrongylidae. Hierarchical modeling of species communities (HMSC) was used to investigate the effect of the different host-related factors on the infection probability, parasite load, and community structure of these helminths. Our results show that species richness was higher in adults and in females compared to juveniles and males, respectively. Contrary to our expectations, we found that less explorative individuals had higher infection probability with different helminths resulting in a higher diversity, which could be due to a higher exposure rate to these helminths and/or behavioral modification due to the infection.

Blinded by the Light: Artificial Light Lowers Mate Attraction Success in Female Glow-Worms (Lampyris noctiluca L.).

Nocturnal light pollution from anthropogenic origin is increasing worldwide and is recognised as a major threat for nocturnal biodiversity. We studied the impact of artificial light on the mate attraction success of female common glow-worms (Lampyris noctiluca L.) by daily monitoring their glowing status in the field, acting as a proxy for mating status throughout the mating season. We found that females in dark surroundings typically stopped glowing after one night, indicating that they had mated, while females in illuminated areas glowed for significantly more nights, in some cases up to 15 nights. Our study confirms previous findings and hypotheses that females exposed to artificial light suffer from a reduced mate attraction success with a negative impact on populations.

Heterogeneous selection on exploration behavior within and among West European populations of a passerine bird.

Heterogeneous selection is often proposed as a key mechanism maintaining repeatable behavioral variation ("animal personality") in wild populations. Previous studies largely focused on temporal variation in selection within single populations. The relative importance of spatial versus temporal variation remains unexplored, despite these processes having distinct effects on local adaptation. Using data from >3,500 great tits (Parus major) and 35 nest box plots situated within five West-European populations monitored over 4 to 18 y, we show that selection on exploration behavior varies primarily spatially, across populations, and study plots within populations. Exploration was, simultaneously, selectively neutral in the average population and year. These findings imply that spatial variation in selection may represent a primary mechanism maintaining animal personalities, likely promoting the evolution of local adaptation, phenotype-dependent dispersal, and nonrandom settlement. Selection also varied within populations among years, which may counteract local adaptation. Our study underlines the importance of combining multiple spatiotemporal scales in the study of behavioral adaptation.

Nonlinear maternal effects on personality in a rodent species with fluctuating densities.

Consistent among-individual variation in behavior, or animal personality, is present in a wide variety of species. This behavioral variation is maintained by both genetic and environmental factors. Parental effects are a special case of environmental variation and are expected to evolve in populations experiencing large fluctuations in their environment. They represent a non-genetic pathway by which parents can transmit information to their offspring, by modulating their personality. While it is expected that parental effects contribute to the observed personality variation, this has rarely been studied in wild populations. We used the multimammate mouse Mastomys natalensis as a model system to investigate the potential effects of maternal personality on offspring behavior. We did this by repeatedly recording the behavior of individually housed juveniles which were born and raised in the lab from wild caught females. A linear correlation, between mother and offspring in behavior, would be expected when the personality is only affected by additive genetic variation, while a more complex relationship would suggests the presence of maternal effects. We found that the personality of the mother predicted the behavior of their offspring in a non-linear pattern. Exploration behavior of mother and offspring was positively correlated, but only for slow and average exploring mothers, while this correlation became negative for fast exploring mothers. This may suggests that early maternal effects could affect personality in juvenile M. natalensis, potentially due to density-dependent and negative frequency-dependent mechanisms, and therefore contribute to the maintenance of personality variation.

The effects of personality on survival and trappability in a wild mouse during a population cycle.

The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) theory provides an evolutionary explanation for the existence of consistent among-individual variation in behaviour, or animal personality. Herein, individuals with a fast lifestyle are considered to be bolder and should take more risks resulting in a lower life expectancy compared to shyer individuals with a slower lifestyle. However, this assumption depends on the levels of intra-specific competition that the individuals experience which has rarely been tested in species that experience large changes in competition on a very short time scale. We used the multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis) as a model system to study the POLS assumption by investigating the effects of two personality traits (exploration and stress-sensitivity) on survival, maturation (a proxy for reproductive investment) and recapture probability during one population cycle (Nindividuals = 201). Such a cycle consists of two phases in which the levels of intra-specific competition vary drastically. We found that only one personality trait, namely stress-sensitivity, had a negative effect on both survival and recapture probability but none of them affected maturation. This suggests that less stress-sensitive individuals take more risks in the wild and have a higher survival probability compared to high stress-sensitive individuals. However, the effect of personality on survival was only present during the population decrease phase, when the levels of intra-specific competition are high due to a scarcity of food. This suggests that seasonal changes in competition might be important in the evolution and maintenance of animal personalities in species whose population dynamics have a clear seasonal component.

Ineffective humoral anti-tick IgY-response in birds: reaction against pathogen constituents?

Background: Variation in parasite burdens among hosts is typically related to differences in adaptive immunity. Comprehension of underlying mechanisms is hence necessary to gain better insights into endemic transmission cycles. Here we investigate whether wild songbirds that have never been exposed to ticks develop adaptive humoral immunity against endemic Ixodes ricinus ticks. Methods: Blue tits were exposed three times in succession to wild Ixodes ricinus ticks. For each infestation, serum samples were obtained. An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was developed, using tick salivary antigens, in order to quantify the bird's IgY response against ticks. In addition, at every sampling occasion the birds' body weight (corrected for body size) and haematocrit level was determined. Results: Individual IgY levels against the ticks' salivary proteins increased over three consecutive tick infestations, and large among-individual variation was observed. The responses were specifically directed against I. ricinus; cross-reactivity against the congeneric tree-hole tick Ixodes arboricola was negligibly low. IgY responses did not impinge on tick feeding success (engorgement weight and attachment success). Yet, those birds with the highest immune responses were more capable to reduce the acute harm (blood depletions) by compensating erythrocyte loss. Furthermore, at the end of the experiment, these birds had gained more body weight than birds with lower IgY levels. Conclusions: Latter observations can be considered as an effect of host quality and/or tolerance mechanisms. Birds anticipate the (future) costs of the activation of the immune system by ticks and/or ongoing tick-borne pathogen infections. Furthermore, although unsuccessful against tick feeding, the IgY responses may indirectly protect birds against tick-borne disease by acting against salivary protein secretions on which pathogens rely for transmission.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub.

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Habitat fragmentation shapes natal dispersal and sociality in an Afrotropical cooperative breeder.

It remains poorly understood how effects of anthropogenic activity, such as large-scale habitat fragmentation, impact sociality in animals. In cooperatively breeding species, groups are mostly formed through delayed offspring dispersal, and habitat fragmentation can affect this process in two opposite directions. Increased habitat isolation may increase dispersal costs, promoting delayed dispersal. Alternatively, reduced patch size and quality may decrease benefits of philopatry, promoting dispersal. Here, we test both predictions in a cooperatively breeding bird (placid greenbul, Phyllastrephus placidus) from an Afrotropical cloud forest archipelago. Males born in fragmented forest dispersed about 1 year earlier than those born in continuous forest. Contrary to females, males also started to reproduce earlier and mostly settled within their natal patch. Females only rarely delayed their dispersal for more than 1 year, both in fragmented and continuous forests. Our results suggest that early male dispersal and reproduction is jointly driven by a decrease in the value of the natal territory and an increase in local breeding opportunities in fragmented forest. While plasticity in dispersal strategies of cooperative breeders in response to anthropogenic change is believed to optimize reproduction-survival trade-offs, to what extent it shapes the ability of species to respond to rapid environmental change remains to be studied.

Isolation of Candidatus Rickettsia vini from Belgian Ixodes arboricola ticks and propagation in tick cell lines.

Candidatus Rickettsia vini was originally detected in Ixodes arboricola ticks from Spain, and subsequently reported from several other Western Palearctic countries including Belgium. Recently, the bacterium was isolated in mammalian (Vero) cell culture from macerated male I. arboricola from Czech Republic, but there have been no reports of propagation in tick cells. Here we report isolation in a tick cell line of three strains of Ca. R. vini from I. arboricola collected from nests of great tits (Parus major) in Belgium. Internal organs of one male and two engorged female ticks were dissected aseptically, added to cultures of the Rhipicephalus microplus cell line BME/CTVM23 and incubated at 28 °C. Rickettsia-like bacteria were first seen in Giemsa-stained cytocentrifuge smears between 2 and 15 weeks later. Two of the isolates grew rapidly, destroying the tick cells within 2-4 weeks of onward passage in BME/CTVM23 cells, while the third isolate grew much more slowly, only requiring subculture at 4-5-month intervals. PCR amplification of bacterial 16S rRNA and Rickettsia gltA, sca4, ompB, ompA and 17-kDa genes revealed that all three isolates were Ca. R. vini, with 100 % identity to each other and to published Ca. R. vini sequences from other geographical locations. Transmission electron microscopy revealed typical single Rickettsia bacteria in the cytoplasm of BME/CTVM23 cells. The Ca. R. vini strain isolated from the male I. arboricola tick, designated Boshoek1, was tested for ability to grow in a panel of Ixodes ricinus, Ixodes scapularis and R. microplus cell lines and in Vero cells. The Boshoek1 strain grew rapidly, causing severe cytopathic effect, in the R. microplus line BME26, the I. ricinus line IRE11 and Vero cells, more slowly in the I. ricinus line IRE/CTVM19, possibly established a low-level infection in the I. ricinus line IRE/CTVM20, and failed to infect cells of any of four I. scapularis lines over a 12-week observation period. This study confirmed the applicability of the simple tick organ-cell line co-cultivation technique for isolation of tick-borne Rickettsia spp. using BME/CTVM23 cells.

Inter-individual variability in spring phenology of temperate deciduous trees depends on species, tree size and previous year autumn phenology.

We explored the inter-individual variability in bud-burst and its potential drivers, in homogeneous mature stands of temperate deciduous trees. Phenological observations of leaves and wood formation were performed weekly from summer 2017 to summer 2018 for pedunculate oak, European beech and silver birch in Belgium. The variability of bud-burst was correlated to previous' year autumn phenology (i.e. the onset of leaf senescence and the cessation of wood formation) and tree size but with important differences among species. In fact, variability of bud-burst was primarily related to onset of leaf senescence, cessation of wood formation and tree height for oak, beech and birch, respectively. The inter-individual variability of onset of leaf senescence was not related to the tree characteristics considered and was much larger than the inter-individual variability in bud-burst. Multi-species multivariate models could explain up to 66% of the bud-burst variability. These findings represent an important advance in our fundamental understanding and modelling of phenology and tree functioning of deciduous tree species.

Identifying trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services delivery for land-use decisions.

Sustainable land-use management must account for the potential trade-offs between biodiversity conservation, productive land uses and ecosystem services. In this study, we used Marxan with Zones to generate land use plans that optimize conservation, farming and forestry land uses to reach biodiversity targets while minimizing the opportunity cost for local communities in an inhabited but data-poor National Park in the Andes of Bolivia. Based on six alternative land-use plans, we identified the synergies and trade-offs between the biodiversity benefits achieved in the different plans and the delivery of four locally important water-related ecosystem services modeled with the web-based tool AguAAndes. Although we find synergies between the conservation of high altitude Polylepis woodlands and their associated avifauna and three of the ecosystem services investigated, soil erosion levels were actually higher in scenarios with higher achieved biodiversity benefits. Our study shows how systematic conservation planning and ecosystem service delivery modelling can be used to solve land-use conflicts and identify trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services in a data-poor tropical area.